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We price the same bet at every book we cover and publish the gap. When nothing is priced better than it should be, we tell you to pass.
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4,631 picks graded · 51.5% won · +2.7% return on stake, since 21 Jun 2026. The full record
Line chart. NC Dinos to win, Samsung Lions @ NC Dinos, Sat 22 Aug. The market's price ran from +114 at 2:45 PM to +113 at the close at 6:00 AM EDT, over 12 readings. Parlae posted this bet at +114 at BetRivers at 7:07 PM, a better price than the close: closing-line value +0.3%.
- We posted
- +114
- BetRivers
- Closed at
- +113
- 4 books
- Beat the close by
- +0.3%
- better than close
Higher is a better price. The most recent published pick with a recorded closing line and a full price history — not our best one. Across all 1,012 picks with a recorded close, we beat it 84.2% of the time.
Today’s board
3 published picks
| Game | The pick | Our price | Elsewhere | Better than fair | Confidence | Game time | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yibing Wu @ Francisco Comesaña | Yibing Wu to win | -157Pinnacle | -158Polymarket | 5.2% better than fair | Lean | Sun, 4:10 PM EDT | |
| Yibing Wu @ Francisco Comesaña | Francisco Comesaña +1.5 | -117Pinnacle | -164Polymarket | 4.6% better than fair | Play | Sun, 4:10 PM EDT | |
| Mattia Bellucci @ Martin Landaluce | Mattia Bellucci +1.5 | -151Pinnacle | -228Novig | 4.0% better than fair | Lean | Sun, 4:10 PM EDT |
The record
at 1 unit per pick
over 4,208 decided
wins-losses-pushes-voids
of 1,013 with a close
Line chart of cumulative profit in units, one point per day with a graded pick. It starts at zero on 21 Jun and ends at +114.0u on 23 Aug, over 64 days and 4,631 graded picks. The high point is +146.2u on 30 Jul. The deepest fall is −37.5u from 24 Jun to 8 Jul.
High point +146.2u on 30 Jul. Deepest fall −37.5u between 24 Jun and 8 Jul (ringed).
Where it comes from
| By sport | Units | Return | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis | +79.6u | +18.8% | 435 |
| Basketball | +23.2u | +1.6% | 1,480 |
| Soccer | +8.4u | +7.9% | 159 |
| Baseball | +2.0u | +0.1% | 2,555 |
| MMA | +0.8u | +82.0% | 2 |
| By kind of bet | Units | Return | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +83.7u | +30.2% | 310 |
| Props | +21.2u | +0.6% | 3,616 |
| Moneyline | +6.9u | +2.2% | 488 |
| Total | +2.3u | +2.7% | 180 |
| Yes/No | +0.0u | — | 34 |
| Other | +0.0u | — | 3 |
Each pick is staked 1 unit flat, so “units won” is profit in those units and return on stake divides it by the 4,208 picks that won or lost. Since 21 Jun 2026. Past results do not predict future results. Every pick, graded.
How a pick gets made
- Step 1
Work out what the bet is really worth
- Step 2
Compare it against every live price
- Step 3
Publish it, or say nothing
The specifics
- Odds sources
- Sports Game Odds, plus Polymarket and Kalshi
- Result sources
- Provider final score, ESPN as backup
- Books on one bet
- Up to 3 today
- Update frequency
- Every 5 minutes
- On this board
- +0.5% edge and above
A display floor for this board, not the engine's own bar.
- Fair price
- Two de-vig methods, pessimistic one kept
- Closing-line value
- Posted price vs the median of ≥2 books at kickoff
- Pushes and voids
- Shown, and outside the return figure
- Graded so far
- 4,631 of 5,036
Since 21 Jun 2026. Anything still ungraded 72 hours after kick-off is flagged on the track-record page.
What we publish
- Every pick, at the price we posted
- Graded at that price. Nothing re-priced, nothing deleted.
- Losses stay up
- Every graded pick, not a selection.
- Rejected candidates are not counted
- Counting bets nobody could have placed would not be a record.
- No backfilling
- It starts the day tracking started and only grows from live picks.
- How we get paid is on the record
- Sportsbook links can pay us. It does not decide which bets appear.
Draft season toolkit
Everything you need before your draft.
- Fantasy football rankings by consensus ADP and tiers
The full draft board with round.pick notation, tiers, bye weeks and the draft sample behind every number.
- Live fantasy draft assistant
Follow a Sleeper draft pick by pick and see who is left, who is falling and who fits your roster next.
- Fantasy draft grader
Grade every roster in your league against the market and share the card.
- Fantasy start or sit calls
Two players, one slot, locked at kickoff and graded afterwards with the misses left up.
Start at the fantasy football hub for the whole suite, or jump to daily fantasy lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel contests.
The prices move. The record stays up either way.
3 published right now.
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